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Not strictly a tech post, but I made some back-of-a-fag-packet calculations on how many seats parties would have won in yesterday’s election had their vote had some form of proportional representation. I simply took their percentage share of the vote, as reported by the BBC, and multiplied it by 650.
N.B. I didn’t vote in this election so you could consider me ‘non-partisan’. I’m just interested in the outcome of PR…
UK General Election Results
Figures from the BBC, with an added column to show how many seats each party would receive if their percentage share of the vote was reflected in the number of seats they received.
| Party | Seats | Gain | Loss | Net | Votes | % | +/-% | #seats as % of vote | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 306 | 100 | 3 | +97 | 10,706,647 | 36.1 | +3.8 | 235 | -71 |
| Labour | 258 | 3 | 94 | -91 | 8,604,358 | 29.0 | -6.2 | 189 | -69 |
| Liberal Democrat | 57 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 6,827,938 | 23.0 | +1.0 | 150 | +93 |
| Democratic Unionist Party | 8 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 168,216 | 0.6 | -0.3 | 4 | -4 |
| Scottish National Party | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 491,386 | 1.7 | +0.1 | 11 | +5 |
| Sinn Fein | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 171,942 | 0.6 | -0.1 | 4 | -1 |
| Plaid Cymru | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 165,394 | 0.6 | -0.1 | 4 | +1 |
| Social Democratic & Labour Party | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 110,970 | 0.4 | -0.1 | 3 | 0 |
| Green | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 285,616 | 1.0 | -0.1 | 7 | +6 |
| Alliance Party | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 42,762 | 0.1 | +0.0 | 0 | -1 |
| UK Independence Party | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 917,832 | 3.1 | +0.9 | 20 | +20 |
| British National Party | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 563,743 | 1.9 | +1.2 | 12 | +12 |
| Ulster Conservatives and Unionists – New Force | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 102,361 | 0.3 | -0.1 | 2 | +2 |
| English Democrats | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 64,826 | 0.2 | +0.2 | 1 | +1 |
| Respect-Unity Coalition | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 33,251 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 1 | +1 |
| Traditional Unionist Voice | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 26,300 | 0.1 | 1 | +1 | |
| Christian Party | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18,623 | 0.1 | 1 | +1 | |
| Independent Community and Health Concern | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 16,150 | 0.1 | +0.0 | 1 | +1 |
| Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12,275 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scottish Socialist Party | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3,157 | 0.0 | -0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Others | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 319,891 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 4 | +3 |
| Turnout | 29,653,639 | 65.1 | 4.0 | ||||||
After 649 of 650 seats declared.
Conclusions
- From what I can see, some form of PR would give UKIP and BNP substantial gains, while actually in first-past-the-post these far-right parties have been kept out of parliament.
- Scottish and Welsh nationalism is under-represented under first-past-the-post
- At least twelve parties would benefit from PR
- The only people who stand to lose are the two mainstream parties the system is designed to elect each time, with the addition of the DUP.
- With 36% of a 65% turnout, the Tories have the support of 23% of registered voters, or, 77% do not support the Tories.
- With 29% of a 65% turnout, Labour are even worse, with 19% support, or less than one in five people in the country supporting the incumbent Government.
… but how many people might have voted differently, and indeed voted at all if they thought their votes would be counted in this way?
Have I made any mistakes in my assumptions or calculations here? Please leave a comment and let me know what you think.
May 7, 2010 at 6:27 pm
Thank you for the stats. They are illuminating.
I think that it also makes clear that the voting framework, as it has been, has led a culture of ‘negative voting’. If PR were to be made the rule, then one would imagine that people would vote for who they actually support, or what they believe in, rather than what most deem an ‘effective’ vote.
A positive framework where people’s vote count allows for the multiplicity of political positions that exist in the UK sounds like a reasonable proposition.
May 7, 2010 at 9:05 pm
Cheers!
I think PR will have a lot to answer for if it brings in around 30 far-right mps, it relies heavily on that ‘imagination’ you mention. Right now lib dems are contemplating collaboration with the tories, so it seems that even with pr and a turn to lib dem will not guarantee alternative politics… still i tend to agree with PR if it was accompaniend by a popular movement
May 8, 2010 at 10:27 am
Very interesting stats, I was Googling to find someone that had done the calculation for me!
Would be interested to see it calculated with this method: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sainte-Laguë_method (but again, I’m too lazy)
Also, the calculation should probably be based on 649 seats, as one constituency delayed voting due to the death of a candidate. Nonetheless, really interesting stuff!
May 8, 2010 at 3:07 pm
In practice, elections involving party lists usually have a minimum threshold that a party must reach in order to win any list seats. This percentage is usually between 2% and 5%. Of the small parties, only UKIP has achieved 3%, and none of the others are close. As has been pointed out, people would vote differently under a different voting system. However, it is not clear that there would be an explosion of small parties under a proportional voting system.
May 14, 2010 at 1:53 pm
Very good and interesting!